In addition, higher infrastructure spending on Qatar National Vision 2030 projects aimed at diversifying the economy should help boost investor confidence. Learn how the World Bank Group is helping countries with COVID-19 (coronavirus). With higher oil prices and rising output, the fiscal positions of GCC states are expected to improve. Terms of Use GCC Economic Outlook: Balancing Conflicting Priorities. Thank you. The global outlook continues to be uncertain and slowing growth in the advanced economies and China is likely to trans-late into downward pressure on the price of oil. However, to achieve more sustainable growth, the GCC countries need to support fiscal consolidation, economic diversification, and increase private sector-led job creation, especially for women and young people. Learn how the World Bank Group is helping countries with COVID-19 (coronavirus). 360.09 kb Kuwait outlook. Qatar: Growth contracted 1.5% (y/y) in the second quarter of 2019, after posting a tepid 0.8% growth rate in the first quarter. ... 3.3 per cent in 2019. Qatar’s economy is expected to grow 5 percent in 2021 while that of Oman is forecast to grow by 3 percent. We provide a wide array of financial products and technical assistance, and we help countries share and apply innovative knowledge and solutions to the challenges they face. A tighter monetary policy, in the context of the pegged exchange rates in the GCC, is expected to offset some of the gains from an expansionary fiscal stance. According to the IIF, financial soundness indicators suggest that the banking systems across the GCC remain sound. The current account surplus will widen from $49 billion in 2017 to $188 billion in 2018, equivalent to 10 per cent of GDP,” said Iradian. Economic growth supported by expansive government investment spending. This site uses cookies to optimize functionality and give you the best possible experience. "Although the deal flow has predominantly revolved around payments processing and acquiring, it will likely spread to other value chain areas. Quickly uncover hidden opportunities with comprehensive data and content. The oil sector contributed 0.8 percentage points to growth in the first quarter but deducted 0.2 percentage points from growth in the second quarter. Higher oil revenues and the further improvement in nonhydrocarbon revenues will more than offset the 15 per cent increase in public spending in 2018. If you continue to navigate this website beyond this page, cookies will be placed on your browser. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are projected to grow 3.3, 2.9 and 3.4 percent respectively. However, this level of growth is lower than the 7 percent that the regional industry recorded between 2014 – 2019. Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth rate will likely slow to 0.4% in 2019 before rising to an average of 2.1% over 2020-2021. A member of our team will be in touch shortly. “Saudi Arabia issued large tranches of sovereign debt in the first half of this year in anticipation of higher global interest rates. 11:00 London | 14:00 Dubai. If you haven't received it in the next 24 hours, please check your junk folder. You can change your cookie settings through your browser. All rights reserved. Capital adequacy ratios exceed 16 per cent in the six GCC countries. You can manage them any time by clicking on the notification icon. Bahrain: Growth is projected at 2% in 2019, expected to reach 2.2% in 2020. "Across the GCC during the crisis, higher numbers of merchants welcomed contactless payments, including those of lower value. This website uses cookies to improve your online experience. BCG's outlook suggests that the GCC's payment revenue pool will expand from $23 billion in 2019 to $24.3 billion in 2024. Higher oil prices and improved output, along with some easing in fiscal consolidation, are driving the growth. The GCC looks set for a challenging next few years amid lower oil prices and rising risks to global growth, which cloud the outlook for member states' economic performance and diversification efforts. Full Report and Executive Summary Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook. All Rights Reserved. We face big challenges to help the world’s poorest people and ensure that everyone sees benefits from economic growth. Likewise, consumers demonstrated the same enthusiasm, even in traditionally challenging markets. Views of an improved economic and business environment in the GCC has more than doubled from 31% to 71% HNWIs positive about 2019 HNWIs are currently more positive than they have been in the last 3 years regarding both global and GCC economic prospects Thank you for your enquiry. Image used for illustrative purposes. The share of non-performing loans (NPLs) to total loans stands at less than 2 per cent in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman, and between 4 and 7 per cent in Bahrain and the UAE. The economy is expected to grow at around 3% by 2020 as higher government spending supports the non-oil sector. You will shortly receive an email containing the recording. “The world has changed dramatically in the three months since our last World Economic Outlook update on the global economy,” said Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor of the IMF.Read more: Coronavirus: With 15,000 cases in the Gulf, here is how GCC states are coping“This crisis is like no other. Your browser is not up-to-date. The downturn in the second quarter was driven by both the oil and non-oil economies. Dubai: GCC countries are expected to see a pick-up in economic growth in 2018 and 2019, according to the latest forecasts by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Qatar’s economy is projected to grow by a modest 0.5% in 2019 before accelerating to 1.5% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021. Qatar: Growth is expected to reach 3% in 2019, accelerating to 3.2% in 2020 and to 3.4% by 2021, as the country continues construction operations in preparation for the 2022 World Cup. Governments may be interested in accelerating the cashless agenda, as research has shown that electronic payments can increase global GDP by as much as 3.0 per cent per year. Learn how the World Bank Group is helping countries with COVID-19 (coronavirus). A lone taxi cab drives over a typically gridlocked highway with the Burj Khalifa, the world's tallest building, in the skyline behind it in Dubai, United Arab Emirates on April 6, 2020. World Economic Outlook, April 2019: Growth Slowdown, Precarious Recovery April 2, 2019 Description: After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. The World Bank Group works in every major area of development. Bahrain: Growth dropped to 0.8 (y/y) in the second quarter after posting a 2.6% growth rate in the first quarter of 2019. © Al Nisr Publishing LLC 2020. Non-oil growth is expected to slow to 2.4%, due to front-loaded FBP fiscal measures and tapering mega-project investments. In the region, Kuwait fared better with a projected growth of -1.1 percent compared to 0.7 percent in 2019. The oil and non-oil sectors made a roughly equal contribution to year-on-year (y/y) growth in the first quarter. The IIF has a slightly more conservative GDP forecast for the UAE at 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 2.6 per cent in 2019. The second section of the report focuses on enhancing human capital, which is an important task to achieve successful and sustainable economic diversification and growth. Data and research help us understand these challenges and set priorities, share knowledge of what works, and measure progress. Domestic demand should strengthen with [the] easing of fiscal consolidation,” said Garbis Iradian, IIF’s chief economist in the Mena region. Your message has been sent successfully. Read more: GCC to witness exit of expatriate workers due to coronavirus: ExpertsThe IMF said the global economy will sharply contract by 3 percent in 2020 due to the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. Your download link will be emailed to you shortly. Your confirmation email is on it's way. Qatar’s real GDP is projected to fall by 4.3 percent in 2020 while Oman’s is projected to decline by 2.8 percent compared to 0.5 percent in 2019.In the region, Kuwait fared better with a projected growth of -1.1 percent compared to 0.7 percent in 2019. Nominal GDP growth was -2.2% (y/y) in the first quarter and -1.9% in the first half of the year. In the United Arab Emirates, real GDP growth is forecast to slip by 3.5 percent real compared to 1.3 percent recorded in 2019. The analysis highlights the need to integrate environmental sustainability and ecosystem resilience considerations into the decision-making process on the diversification paths and options in the GCC countries. Views of an improved economic and business environment in the GCC has more than doubled from 31% to 71% HNWIs positive about 2019 HNWIs are currently more positive than they have been in the last 3 years regarding both global and GCC economic prospects We are not responsible for, and do not control, such external websites, entities, applications or media publishers. Saudi Arabia: Growth was modest at 1.7% (y/y) during the first quarter and 0.5% during the second quarter. Privacy Policy. Qatar’s economy is expected to grow 5 percent in 2021 while that of Oman is forecast to grow by 3 percent. Read more: GCC to witness exit of expatriate workers due to coronavirus: Experts However, in 2021 the IMF has forecast a relatively stronger rebound for the regional economies, with an overall real GDP growth of 4.6 percent . The 37 per cent rise in average oil prices in 2018 is leading to a market turnaround in external balances for oil exporters. International Monetary Fund says GCC economic growth expected to pick up in 2018 and 2019. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. Saudi Arabia’s growth is forecast at -2.3 percent, with non-oil GDP contracting by 4 percent. We provide a wide array of financial products and technical assistance, and we help countries share and apply innovative knowledge and solutions to the challenges they face. Environmental and Social Policies for Projects. While the UAE has not released economy-wide numbers for the second quarter, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and other indicators of economic sentiment suggest that non-oil growth maintained its momentum from 2018 through at least mid-2019, while a 7% decrease in oil production weakened growth in the oil sector. ... GCC economic activity still soft; oil down on bearish supply. Global data and statistics, research and publications, and topics in poverty and development. The body of the text is provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis and has not been edited in any way. 16.01.2019. The forecast is marked down by more than 6 percentage points relative to the October 2019 WEO and January 2020 update - an extraordinary revision over such a short period of time. The unemployment rate among Saudi nationals is the second highest in the GCC at 12.0% (as of Q3 2019) and is considered one of the biggest challenges for the economy. Under a quick-rebound scenario, BCG’s outlook suggests that the GCC’s payment revenue pool will expand from $23 billion in 2019 to $24.3 billion in 2024, a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.1 percent. Qatar has also returned to international debt markets with a sizeable issuance of bonds.”. Growth in the GCC in 2019 is projected to match that in 2018, at 2.1 percent, before accelerating to …

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