Knowing that the Jets won’t be able to hold up in a shootout, he will be looking for the Jets quarterback to make multiple mistakes. Le’Veon Bell gets a bigger workload in his revenge game, and the Chiefs coast to a comfortable win. It's all here for Week 8. Mahomes throws 2 TDs, runs for 1 as Chiefs beat Bears 26-3. Circa sportsbook manager Chris Bennett said large spreads tend to scare off NFL bettors. Trailing by seven, Tom Brady led the Patriots down the field, scrambling for a first down at the Chiefs 12-yard line. He will rely on his supremely-talented players to simply be better than the players across from them — and they will be. It was the largest political bet ever placed on Betfair Exchange. By continuing to browse or by clicking “I Accept Cookies” you agree to the storing of first-party and third-party cookies on your device. The line came down after the Broncos opened -28. Mark Franco leads the pack with a 23-11-1 ATS record, and Doug Fitz is in second place at 21-14. In four other games since 2011 with a line of 20 or higher, the underdog went 3-1 against the spread. Chiefs’ punter Tommy Townsend made the throw of the day. If you already feel comfortable with these metrics, skip the link and keep reading! The rookie punter used his arm — not his leg — to make one of the game’s key plays. The public wants to bet favorites, Bennett said, but they want to bet short favorites (-3 or less) or ones they can tease under a field goal. Arrowhead Pride | Kansas City Chiefs Schedule, News, Roster and Stats, Chiefs vs. The Dallas Cowboys scored a late touchdown to cover as 22½-point favorites in a 31-6 win over the Miami Dolphins, and the New England Patriots failed to cover -21 in a 30-14 victory over the Jets. Steve Spagnuolo should be able to tee off with his pressure schemes on this offensive line and Sam Darnold’s propensity to feel ghost pressure. It's all here for Week 8. “Once the point spread gets past a certain threshold — 14 or so — they lose interest,” he said. Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Just as in the Week 7 game, I think we’ll see some reserve Chiefs players in the fourth quarter — and maybe some garbage-time New York scoring, too. Despite giving up a passing touchdown after just a few plays in the opening drive, they particularly excelled against the pass, limiting Brady to an EPA per passing play of negative 0.40 — meaning that on average, when the Patriots’ quarterback dropped back to pass (whether the play resulted in a scramble, a sack, a penalty or an actual pass attempt) he made his team likely to score 0.4 fewer points. Instead, I think the Chiefs will quickly get a mutli-score lead and then shift into low gear — which will be a perfect setup for Le’Veon Bell to have a big game against his former team. Thanks to a former Carnegie Mellon statistics student (now employed by the Baltimore Ravens), we can. The Chiefs jump out to a big lead early, capitalizing on some miscommunications between Sam Darnold and his wideouts to stifle the Jets and win big. The following is a list of all regular season and postseason games played between the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs. The rookie punter used his arm — not his leg — to make one of the game’s key plays. In the Kansas City Chiefs 43-16 victory over the Denver Broncos in Week 7, you might say that Byron Pringle’s 102-yard kickoff return for a touchdown — and Daniel Sorenson’s 50-yard pick-six — kind of messed up our predictions. Chiefs vs. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. As always, here’s a quick primer on some of the stats and data I’ll be using. Here we see the 2019 completion percentage of all NFL teams at all points of the field. Feel free to dm me on twitter if you have any questions. As long as that’s handled, it’s going to be more like a practice. With 41 drop backs recorded, this adds up to the Chiefs defense limiting Brady to a total 16.6 fewer expected points added than the average offense should be expected to score in similar situations (down, distance, etc.). The NFL usually involves tight point spreads and games that come down to the final minute, but sometimes there are games like Jets-Chiefs. The main takeaway here is that the Chiefs defense really limited Brady’s ability to throw the ball deep. Sign up for our free daily Morning and Afternoon Update newsletters. Refresh constantly for minute-to-minute updates on all of Saturday’s college football action. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. When the Chiefs have the ball, the only real concern will be dealing with Quinnen Williams up the middle of the offensive line. Chiefs’ punter Tommy Townsend made the throw of the day. Another respected bettor then came in and bet Chiefs -19, pushing the line back to 20, he said. The Chiefs have, however, been somewhat vulnerable to the very deep ball, allowing more completions very deep in the middle of the field and along the left sideline. When the Jets have the ball, the Chiefs defense should have the advantage at every level. Handicapper Alex B. Smith breaks down every game of Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season, with analysis, trends and final scores. — Cowboys -22½ vs. Dolphins (Sept. 22, 2019): Dallas covered late in a 31-6 victory. Welcome to this week’s Stacking the Box Score, where I’ll be quantifying what went down between the Kansas City Chiefs and their most recent opponent — in this case, Sunday’s 23-16 win over the New England Patriots. Jets (Sept. 22, 2019): On the same day as the above game, New England didn’t cover in a 30-14 victory. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey), Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles against the Denver Broncos during a football game, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020, in Denver. Almost all of our writers at least predicted a substantial Chiefs victory — as did most of our readers. Now we’ll subtract the Chiefs data from the data for the whole league — which leaves us with a defensive version of Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE). Such is the case this week, with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs (6-1) favored by 20 points at home against the hapless New York Jets (0-7). Chiefs 38, Jets 13, This game is an opportunity for the Chiefs to continue building toward playing their best ball in January. But through advanced analytics, it’s been the defense that has looked more favorable in recent weeks. The star quarterback tested positive for the coronavirus and will miss Saturday’s game against Boston College.

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